The Trump Doctrine

We now have strong indications as to how Donald Trump will reshape American grand strategy, and the sum of this week's events have been nothing short of epochal. Yet, much remains unclear.

News is moving quickly as President Donald Trump’s administration enacts as many new policies as is administratively feasible. We now know where Trump stands on Ukraine and multipolarity. The future is less certain with respect to Iran and China where Trump’s true intentions remain cloudy. Nonetheless, the clear shift in American grand strategy this week has been monumental and historic.

Roughly two weeks ago, in an interview with Megyn Kelly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio essentially announced that the United States accepts the multipolar world order and has ended its ambitions for global hegemony.¹ I believe we are now seeing the first stages of this strategy coming to fruition.

Ukraine, Russia, & Europe

In the past week, Trump’s administration has said and done so many consequential things related to Russia and Ukraine that is hard to keep track of. I have attempted to compile them all here.

Trump posted a read out on Truth Social of his first phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin since his return to office. It covers much more than simply declaring an interest in peace talks.² It emphasizes the shared sacrifices the two countries made during World War II, a poignant cultural memory in former Soviet Union states. It also mentions our shared national interests and the “great benefit that we will someday have in working together.” This is the polar opposite approach from the previous administration, which refused to speak to Russia whatsoever. He also mentioned other important topics like the Middle East, energy, and the prevention of de-dollarization, an issue of existential importance for the United States.

At a NATO meeting in Brussels, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made three firm position statements in no uncertain terms. (1) The U.S. believes NATO membership for Ukraine is unrealistic. (2) Ukraine returning to its pre-2014 borders is also unrealistic. (3) The U.S. will not deploy troops to Ukraine.³ He also said the U.S. will not prioritize European security as it plans to shift focus to the U.S.-Mexico border and the Asia Pacific. These statements, combined with Trump’s stated intent to reduce American troop presence in Europe,⁴ are a slap in the face to Ukraine and NATO member states who have largely been seeking increased American involvement.

Photo from Axios.⁵

Yesterday, Trump said that he and Putin discussed setting up a denuclearization agreement.⁶ He also declared his intent to set up a trilateral agreement with Russia and China to halve each of their respective military budgets.⁷ Roughly one hour before this statement was published, the market value of various American weapon manufacturers like Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics each tanked by an average of ~10%.⁸ It is unclear if this was related to Trump’s comments, but it appears they may have had advanced knowledge of his intent.

European leaders, namely Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European Commission President Ursula Von Der Lyon, have been fuming over Trump and Hegseth’s comments. I will not detail any of their statements, but they indicate a deep sense of shock and betrayal. However, it is important to keep in mind that European interests ultimately do not matter. What matters are Russian and American interests because they are each, on their own, significantly more powerful than Europe. The U.S. is responsible for 68% of defense spending in NATO.⁹ The Russian military, as of 2024, is now vastly more powerful than all other European militaries combined.¹⁰ Not only do Europe’s interests not matter, the continent is also demonstrably better off under the boot of the U.S. and Russia. When left to their own devices, European states have a tendency to self destruct. World War I is a case in point. Europe is the only continent where I believe American/Russian colonialism is both good and necessary.

One day after Trump announced his phone call with Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy published video of a drone strike on the remnants of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor. He claimed this was a Russian drone, and argued, “This means Putin is definitely not preparing for negotiations.” This claim was quickly dismissed by many, immediately attributing it to a false flag attack.¹¹ Some argued it was suspicious timing since it happened one day after the Trump-Putin phone call.¹² If it is indeed a false flag attack, which is not impossible, then its political motive could be an attempt to convince the Trump team to recommit to Ukraine.

Something of note is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to the May 9 Victory parade, commemorating the Soviet and allied victory over Nazi Germany.¹³ At the time of this publication, neither Trump nor Xi have publicly responded to the invitation. However, if such a meeting takes place, it has the potential to be an extraordinary event. It could become a history worthy moment in which the great powers officially declare a polar shift, much like the Yalta Conference of 1945. While tensions today could certainly slide into a cold war, as they did after Yalta, this potential meeting could symbolize a new era of detente.

It is also worth noting that two skeptics of conventional American foreign policy, Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., were inducted into the Trump administration this week. As the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard will likely play a role in greasing the transition of American grand strategy.

Israel, Gaza, & Iran

Last week, Trump said that the United States would take control of and rebuild the largely destroyed Gaza strip, and that it would temporarily relocate the entire population to do this.¹⁴ There are two competing hypotheses as to what he is really planning.

The first hypothesis is that Trump will assist Israel in genocide and the Greater Israel project, and that he does not intend to allow the Gazans back once they have been relocated (i.e. expelled). This would essentially permit Israel to occupy and annex the territory, much like it did with the Golan Heights.

The second hypothesis, which is much more interesting, is that he indeed plans to rebuild Gaza for the Gazans and to use an American presence in the strip as a deterrent against Israeli attacks. This would, in effect, be a check mate against Netanyahu since it would (1) prevent territorial expansion, (2) alleviate the need for the United States to continue supplying weapons to Israel, and (3) effectively end the genocide, which would be a public relations win for the United States on the world stage.

It could be argued Trump is unlikely to take such an action because he has an obligation to his Zionist donors like Miriam Adelson. However, it is worth considering that Trump no longer has to run for reelection and that he is a trend setter in the Republican Party. Given the rising trend of anti-Zionist conservatism,¹⁵ Trump could potentially hop on this bandwagon and change the character of the entire Republican Party to anti-Zionist conservatism. Do I think this is likely? Absolutely not, but it is a consideration I will keep in the back of my mind.

Regarding Iran, Trump has continued his usual habit of puffing his chest and promising to prevent nuclear proliferation at all costs. It seems unlikely he actually wants a war with Iran, though. He has explicitly rejected cabinet picks for Iran hawks John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. Furthermore, the American Defense Intelligence Agency claims Israel is planning to conduct a strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.¹⁶

Information like this does not come to light by accident. It was almost certainly revealed for a reason. The Trump administration may have intentionally revealed this to warn Iran and Russia to bolster air defenses and prevent a dirty nuclear strike that could spread radioactive material throughout Iran and the region.¹⁷ The reason I think Trump may have intentionally signaled this is because he has an interest in preventing Iranian nuclear proliferation and because Russia has a strategic interest maintaining its partnership with Iran, which could stabilize by pressuring Iran not to proliferate. After all, Russia was a signatory of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). If Trump manages to get Russia to defend against such a strike or if he can get Israel to call the strike off entirely, then an Iranian nuclear deterrent would be redundant and unnecessary for the time being.

Photo from CNN.¹⁸

Additionally, it is unclear how much longer the hawkish and legally devious Netanyahu cabinet will be in power. A future Israeli administration, should it have a true interest in Israel’s long term survival, may not have such a hardline approach against Iran, especially not when Iran has Russian security guarantees. One could argue it is in Israel’s inherent strategic interest to topple Iran and that any Israeli regime would seek to destroy it, but this is unlikely because Iran is now, following the collapse of Syria, a distant threat compared to Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Türkiye. Iran is over 900 km away from the Golan, whereas Türkiye is a mere 300 km away. The advanced warning time from a Iranian air strike or invasion would be much greater than from Türkiye. Erdogan has also been rhetorically anti-Israel of late, though many believe this is merely posturing since he has done very little to support Palestine.

China, Taiwan, & the Pacific

Trump has always been an advocate of the long delayed “pivot to Asia“ strategy initialized by Barack Obama.¹⁹ Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign put a trade war with China as one of his primary goals.²⁰ Trump appears to want to restart the trade war by imposing tariffs on the majority of imports from China.²¹ It is unclear what other dimensions his pivot to Asia will take since most of the first month has been dominated by Ukraine policy and domestic policy. However, once the administration shifts focus to China and the Pacific, I am confident their policy decisions will be equally as unpredictable and rapid fire.

Trump, unlike Biden, has not given a promise to defend Taiwan in the event of a reunification attempt by China. Interestingly, Trump even threatened Taiwan with tariffs. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te made a statement yesterday that he would communicate with and invest in the United States.²² It appears the tariff threat may have been an empty threat to get Taiwan to give the U.S. preferential treatment. It reminds me of the statements Trump made about annexing Greenland, Canada, and Panama. They may indeed be real threats, but as soon as the other side caves and offers concessions, they appear instead to have been strategic bluffs.

Soft Power Diplomacy

There are three colloquial terms to describe foreign policy tools: hard power, soft power, and sticky power. Hard power is military force, soft power is diplomacy, and sticky power is economic leverage like sanctions. Trump is transforming each of these tools and leveraging them in very different ways than the Biden administration.

The Trump team has made serious efforts to downsize and/or eliminate the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). While this organization did certainly distribute some humanitarian aid, its covert function was to incite regime change on behalf of the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) Directorate of Operations.²³

The USAID, and similar organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy, were deeply involved in many regime change operations. Some, like Victoria Nuland’s 2014 Ukraine operation,²⁴ were quite successful. Others, such as John Bolton’s 2019 Venezuela operation, were not.²⁵ Regardless, the removal of the USAID from the regime change toolkit was an interesting decision.

Rhetorically, Trump and Elon Musk state the reason behind their decision to eliminate USAID is to reduce government spending and eliminate “woke” soft power. This may indeed be their intent. However, functionally, going after USAID and other American diplomatic institutions has the side effect of dismantling covert American soft power.

Looking Forward

I have been holding off from publishing this article because as each day passes, Trump says and does so many increasingly consequential things. If this trend continues, this article will become antiquated in a week’s time.

There is a quote attributed to Vladimir Lenin that has come up increasingly of late, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Considering the breakneck speed the Trump administration is reorienting American grand strategy, this has certainly been a week where decades happened.

Nevertheless, we are only a month into the second Trump term. The administration could fumble this reorientation, allowing the neoconservative faction to swoop back in and assert control. Or, perhaps, they will succeed in permanently altering the position of the United States in the world system. Only time will tell.

1. https://www.state.gov/secretary-marco-rubio-with-megyn-kelly-of-the-megyn-kelly-show/

2. https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1889720462151917756

3. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/12/politics/hegseth-ukraine-rules-out-nato-membership/index.html

4. https://www.newsweek.com/trump-us-troops-europe-nato-2019728

5. https://www.axios.com/2025/02/13/nato-ukraine-hegseth-trump-putin

6. https://x.com/ABC/status/1890134046161662462

7. https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1890167562987556869

8. https://x.com/wyattreed13/status/1890198290119147539

9. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-1-3t-in-nato-defense-spending/

10. The Russian military is now stronger than the U.S. & NATO

Institutional War Theory

Jan 29

11. https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/1890415998827733166

12. https://x.com/TaraBull808/status/1890326825697488937

13. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3298771/putin-invites-xi-and-trump-moscow-raising-prospects-landmark-summit

14. https://apnews.com/article/trump-netanyahu-washington-ceasefire-1c8deec4dd46177e08e07d669d595ed3

15. Recent programs and Twitter/X posts from the likes of Candace Owens, Alex Jones, Dan Bilzerian, Tucker Carlson, and many others indicate that a large contingent of the right has transitioned to anti-Zionism. In the case of the first three names listed, they have explicitly stated on multiple occasions that they believe Israel is guilty of genocide. Additionally, libertarians have become increasingly popular among the right given their principled stance on anti-Zionism that dates back before the Israel-Gaza War. Since 2023, libertarians Dave Smith and Scott Horton have both been on endless press tours including dozens of forum debates earning millions of combined views.

16. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/israel-likely-to-strike-iran-in-coming-months-warns-us-intelligence/ar-AA1yW5of

17. Using conventional munitions to strike fissile material would functionally have the same effect of a dirty nuclear bomb, in which irradiated material would spread far from the blasts and from particles being carried by the wind. This would cause and increase in cancers and birth defects much like the Chernobyl disaster did.

18. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/11/world/putin-pezeshkian-russia-iran-intl/

19. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/

20. https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36185012

21. https://www.cfr.org/article/what-trumps-appointments-tell-us-about-his-asia-policy

22. https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-president-tariffs-semiconductors-trump-616f3fbdb20b017c2d19bd1c18a570f1

23. https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/04/03/cuban-twitter-and-other-times-usaid-pretended-to-be-an-intelligence-agency/

24. https://jacobin.com/2022/02/maidan-protests-neo-nazis-russia-nato-crimea?s=08

25. https://thegrayzone.com/2022/07/15/us-intel-officer-targeted-by-john-bolton-reacts-to-coup-plot-confession/